I thought it was stupid for Lamont to run and still think it was a stupid decision. The whole race is a freak show. But that freak show may be just what Lamont needs to win.
Will Lamont convince people that he is a competent Democrat? He needs to win Dems decidedly and I'm not sure he is in that position. He also needs enough independents and I'm not sure he is there yet either. But, in a twist of fate, I think it might be the Republican playing the role of the spoiler for the third party candidate. I'm not convinced that the oppressed white male and anti-tax crusaders that make up the base of the GOP will be able to vote for Lieberman over Schlesinger. At least not on the scale that polls are predicting. I'd guess Schlesinger needs to pull 20% for Lamont to have an obvious win by night's end. 15% will make it close. 10% will make it a real long shot. Anymore than that and I think CT will elect a man who named a political party after himself.
This would be my darkhorse race along with Pederson in AZ. The other darkhorse would be a closer than expected finish by Angelides. Schwarzenegger is struggling to get 50% despite having been fellated incessently by an embarassingly infatuated press.