Thursday, November 02, 2006

I'm Not The Only One

Who's predicting Dems will win 32 seats:
Three political scientists, Joseph Bafumi, Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien, have recently released a paper that forecasts the level of seat shifts from the generic congressional vote question, using model-based computer simulations of the 435 individual House contests.

The gruesome methodological details may be found in the paper, but the bottom line is that their simulations predict a 32 seat pickup for the Democrats. As we shall see when we get to the race by race data, this is not such a crazy prediction.
Update:It looks like Jonathan Singer at MyDD has updated his prediction to exactly what I predicted: 32 House seats and 6 Senate seats.


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