Two out of Thirthy: Buh-Bye Wilson and Weldon
In 2004 I went to my home state of New Mexico to do some canvassing in good ol' NM-1. (I actually grew up in NM-2.) Unfortunately, Heather Wilson was able to pull another election out of thin air--Kerry won by more than five points. She's always been a good election closer. But I don't think that will help her much this time. The last three polls coming out of NM-1 have Patsy Madrid up by 10, 8 and 8. I'll bet it's a little closer than that, but I've a haunch Madrid wins by five. Madrid has a more aggressive campaign than did Romero (who ran in 2004 and 2002) and there is the anti-GOP sentiment increasingly growing. Being up by ten points in the final weeks is good for Madrid, but since Wilson has been such a good finisher, expect a tightening of this race down the home stretch. Unless, of course, another GOP secret gets exposed. If not, I'll be happy to see Madrid sworn in as the next Rep. of NM-1.
I've been following the whole "Able Danger"/Curt Weldon fiasco for some time now. (Most recently, I mentioned it here. Weldon was also the guy who wanted to fly to Iraq and dig up some WMD personally. The guy scares me more than most people, and not just because I disagree with his votes. Since it looks more and more like he's under investigation, it's likely that he may be tossed out of the House like Wilson.