Monday, October 02, 2006

Mason-Dixon

Mason-Dixon just released a bunch of polls on every competitive Senate race. Their findings?

If the election were held today, the Democrats could very possibly take control of the Senate. Democratic candidates are leading Republican incumbents in MT, OH, PA, and RI, and Democrat Harold Ford narrowly leads in the open seat race in TN. That's 5 pick-ups. The Democrats need 6 to take control. But Democratic candidates are also tied in MO and VA. The polls also show Democrats holding on to all our own seats.

All these polls, of course, were conducted before revelations about the Republican leadership's refusal to act on knowledge of a predator in among ranks.

1 Comments:

At October 09, 2006 5:42 PM, Blogger Big Red Lance said...

Bobby,

Yes, it’s true that the Mason-Dixon poll shows that Democrats are either leading or tied in several key races. However, even if this were true, there’s still an 80.8% chance that the Republicans will retain control of the Senate.

http://pollstered.blogspot.com/2006/10/republicans-still-likely-to-retain.html

I can go into the math behind this if you’d like. The key is that, even though the Democrats may be up in several races, they must win NEARLY ALL of the them in order to gain control. That’s a pretty tall order.

--Lance

 

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