Friday, June 09, 2006

Not good news

Everyone was looking at the June 6 primary for clues as to what will transpire in the November midterms. So far, it doesn't look good.

First of all, Francine Busby got just about 1.5% more of the vote than John Kerry did in 2004. The fact that this was Duke Cunningham's home district, where the "culture of corruption" theme should have been the most salient, makes things all the worse. In fact, a former lobbyist was elected. Yes, the NRCC spent $5 million on the race, but I think the reason Bilbray won was that he was talking about immigration while Busby was talking about some vague, distant issue of corruption, which voters see as a bipartisam problem. Democrats can't run on a "mood" or a "trend," they have to talk about issues.

Secondly, the fact that Californians rejected Prop 82 by a wide margin doesn't bode well for Angelides' chances in November. Angelides is running on raising taxes on the wealthy to, among other things, fully fund education. Well, Prop 82 would have done the same thing. Doesn't look like Californians are buying it.


At June 09, 2006 4:29 PM, Blogger Gilbert Martinez said...

Prop. 82 was poorly constructed and many prominent progressives (e.g. John Burton) were opposed to it. It didn't have a great campaign either. Also, this should be kept in context. In 2005, voters rejected all propositions and now there is growing sentiment that the initiative process, though a good idea, is getting out of hand.

In 2004, Cunningham got 58.5%. This time Bilbray didn't break 50%. And that is despite 5 million bucks in a reliably Republican district. In Jean Schmidt's special election, another reliable GOP district, she barely eked one out and the GOP had to pour in a lot of cash as well. These are supposed to be reliable GOP districts and they have had to put in millions. How much are they going to have to put in competetive districts? They are in trouble and there is no question about it.

Angelides can win. There is no question about that. He wouldn't have had the endorsement of nearly every prominent leader and organization. Incidentally, now that the primary is over, perhaps people can find out a little about what Angelides is really running on. It's much more than taxes.

At June 17, 2006 4:46 AM, Anonymous Helpful Links For Growth said...

after reading your blog, it seems that Democrats need to step up and do more if they are going to win in November in California.

As far as Angelides? well, prop 82 not passing doesnt mean that he cant win..what it means is that if prop 82 was going to do the same things that he is running his race around, he might want to find and/or narrow down his political issues (i.e, instead of focusing on raising taxes on the wealthy to fully fund education, he should focus on one or the other)


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