Tuesday, May 09, 2006

Poll: Angelides Holds 10-Point Lead Over Westly

I think this SurveyUSA poll is a little early--not to mention, the lack of credibility S-USA has in my book--and a lot can happen in the next 28, but I have to say Angelides 10 point lead (but high MOE) is not surprising. Now that Angelides finally started putting ads on the air, people are finding out who he is. I'm not surprised they are liking him. But I won't read too much into this poll.

Since Westly has a monetary advantage at this point and will probably be able to have more TV time, I'd say he still has a good shot. I haven't gotten many mailers--surprising since I'm permanent absentee--so I don't know how effective the mail campaign will be. Angelides gets free publicity from state Party mailers, and possibly some union mailers, so that could save him money for more aggressive TV advertising. A few solid spots with appropriate targeting will probably push Angelides over the top. A properly run campaign, IMO, would net Angelides 60%, but I don't think that will happen. As I mentioned, I think the Angelides campaign has been mediocre and less than impressive.

It should be an exciting finish and it's nice to know that whoever wins will be a great candidate.

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