Competition and Incumbency

Let's take a look at the last several ballot results for the AD21 races. (NOTE: The address is not mine--for obvious reasons--but is in my precinct.) In 2000, Joe Simitian won with 54.9% of the vote. Two years later, in 2002, with the benefit of incumbency, Simitian wins with 60.6% of the vote.

OK, so that can be attributed to redistricting. (Of course, I'd ask any critic and supporter of that idea to check the results of the redistricting and post them before sending a comment, but I doubt that will happen because of arrogance or laziness. I'll do it below) If the redistricting argument is to be taken as the sole cause, one would expect the Democrat to have won big in '04, right? Well, in the '04 open seat race, the Democrat won with a whopping 51.6%. Same district as '02 but no Democratic incumbent.

Voter registration for AD21 in 2000 :

Dem GOP
101,577 66,754
47.00% 30.89%

Voter registration for AD21 in 2002:

Dem GOP
102,361 74,433
44.99% 32.71%

To me these numbers suggest that the incumbent performed in a manner contrary to what a redistricting is the only cause argument would predict. But hey, 153 is the only important number right?